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bsus20
Ski Bum
Joined: Jan/28/2008
Location: 7
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 68
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Topic: longest losing streak for the giveaway Posted: May/10/2010 at 6:09pm |
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I havent won since Feb 2008!! Thats more than 2 years!
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Tsiumon
Local
Joined: Feb/04/2010
Location: 19
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 311
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Posted: May/10/2010 at 5:58pm |
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I haven't been able to log in @ 3pm for a few months now bc of school and work..so it looks like I won't have chance to win for a while
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Get Some
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dking
Instructor
Joined: Aug/19/2007
Location: 18
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 1507
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Posted: May/10/2010 at 5:54pm |
Originally posted by dking on 03/Mar/2009
I've been a member since before the giveaways started and I log on 99% of the time... no luck yet
But I like the site and love the store even more. Keep it up SS!! |
I just realized that another year has passed since I first posted in this thread. I'm logged in most of the time and still no win yet. And I rarely see my name during the spin. I guess I'm just not that lucky. At least Jared is entertaining
Originally posted by Trevinpendry
I wonder who has been a member for the shortest time
and has won the giveaway. |
And crazily enough, there have been members that have had their name come up too quickly and were disqualified from winning the second time. Just amazing... 
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No Sig... I'm just not that witty or creative
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Trevinpendry
Ski Bum
Carpet boarding.
Joined: Apr/01/2010
Location: 26
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 231
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Posted: May/08/2010 at 6:01pm |
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I wonder who has been a member for the shortest time and has won the giveaway.
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Romans 1:16 For I a m not ashamed of the Gospel of Jesus Christ, for it is the power of God to salvation for everyone who believes...
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Gester87
Ski Bum
Joined: Feb/17/2010
Location: 18
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 434
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Posted: May/08/2010 at 5:55pm |
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Yea the stunt was a great price, I am actually waiting and hoping to see if the rc will go to the staffpick and go as cheap as the stunt.
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leadfootedfool
Ski Bum
Joined: Apr/05/2010
Location: 26
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 194
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Posted: May/08/2010 at 5:42pm |
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After seeing all the heartbreak in this post, I figured it'd be better to just buy my Stunt for $99
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andrethegiant
Instructor
Joined: Mar/08/2010
Location: 20
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 1610
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Posted: May/08/2010 at 8:55am |
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what do you mean active members?
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determined
Instructor
Joined: Mar/07/2010
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 2236
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Posted: May/08/2010 at 8:50am |
joined march 8 and won on april 28. damn that took a long time!!  It may have been less because i didn't really log in everyday during the beginning. I was trying to change my guest account name to my current name for at least a week(not sure it was me or the system was messed up).
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djinhwan
Instructor
Joined: Feb/05/2008
Location: 22
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 2111
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Posted: May/06/2010 at 3:58pm |
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wow a month ago, man try years
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my mom says im hardcore
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Dr.Jibb
Ski Bum
On Top of Pike's Peak - June 10, 2010
Joined: Mar/20/2010
Location: 9
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 104
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Posted: Apr/11/2010 at 10:05pm |
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+1 day
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Angry Midget Yo
Instructor
Tailpress at Mammoth!
Joined: Mar/16/2010
Location: 19
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 5150
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Posted: Apr/11/2010 at 10:03pm |
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Joined a month ago and still haven't won.
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je6ch
Lift Op.
Joined: Apr/07/2010
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 145
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Posted: Apr/11/2010 at 10:21am |
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Just log in and make sure your under the list of active members. It might take a while because you need to be "active." on the site.
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koji3
Instructor
Joined: Mar/02/2010
Location: 8
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 1741
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Posted: Apr/10/2010 at 9:02pm |
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3days in a row haha.
what do you need to do to be in the draw? just log in?
thanks ps im new to sierra
:D
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If only Queensland had snow...
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iis2fly
Ski Bum
Joined: Feb/28/2010
Location: 18
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 396
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Posted: Apr/10/2010 at 8:46pm |
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Another week without a win, but theres always next week
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Gester87
Ski Bum
Joined: Feb/17/2010
Location: 18
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 434
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Posted: Apr/10/2010 at 8:14pm |
EVERYDAY IS ANOTHER LOSING DAY
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gmogi
Ski Bum
The champion makes his own luck
Joined: Dec/18/2009
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 367
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Posted: Apr/10/2010 at 2:49am |
Originally posted by joness
Well, that isn't really true. Probability is the numerical assessment of likelihood on a scale from 0 (impossibility) to 1 (absolute certainty). Your chances of winning on each day isn't dependent on whether you have previously won or lost. In games of chance, such as this one, the entries are independent, meaning each day your chance of winning is 1/(however many people are entered). So you can log in in every day, but your chances of winning that day is the exact same as the person who just joined.
However, you have better odds if you play (log in) than if don't play (because then your odds are 0). So the more you log in, the more you can take your chances, which are the same as all the other people logged in that day.
And the whole concept of 'sooner or later' in gambling is a BAD idea. I was at a roulette table on my 21st birthday. They had rolled a red number the last 10 times. A guy walked up, thinking the next one HAD to be black, what are the odds! Well, the odds were STILL 50/50. He dropped $20 on black, and they rolled a red. He wanted to make his money back, so he dropped another $20 on black, it rolled red. Frustrated he dropped $40 on black... red again. He thought that the black HAD to come up, so he dropped $80, it rolled red. He was freaked out that his wife was going to be mad at him, so he put down $100 on black to get some of his money back... red... again. This guy lost $260 in less than 5 minutes by assuming the odds were better than 50/50. He finally walked away. |
So what you are talking about is called gambler's fallacy, which is correct. What I was trying to convey was the law of large numbers. In your case, it is possible for that kind of streak to happen, since you are looking at a short period of a countless times the roulette has been spun. Even though it is an independent event, if there is enough spins, your name should come up because of law of large numbers.
With the giveaway, you aren't dealing with a fair machine, so the actual probability is different. Let just assume it is fair and say the chances of one person is something around 1/1000 (probably lower since it doesn't really go over 1000). If it spun 100,000 times, the law of large number states that the probability of you getting pick should be close to 1/1000. When will one get that first win, is hard to say, but if you entered 10,000 spins, it would be a low probability that you haven't one at least once. That was the point I was trying to make.
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lightning80
Instructor
Joined: Mar/10/2010
Location: NorCal
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 3124
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Posted: Apr/09/2010 at 3:29pm |
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they average about 800-1000 people per day logged in for the giveaway...so..if you log in 1000 weekdays...your chances are pretty good at winning once...there are 260 weekdays per year..it'll take less than 4 years to get a free board...unless your luck really sucks..and other people are winning multiple times while you get nothing...
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dmw51
Ski Bum
Joined: Nov/27/2009
Location: 33
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 26
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Posted: Apr/09/2010 at 3:26pm |
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i forget how long it's been.
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dpstrand
Ski Bum
Joined: Aug/19/2007
Location: 19
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 133
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Posted: Apr/09/2010 at 3:24pm |
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I've got about 200 logged in days so far with no win.
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KristinaTheresa
Ski Bum
Joined: Feb/24/2010
Location: 19
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 205
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Posted: Apr/09/2010 at 3:23pm |
Originally posted by sixpoint
The Give Away is a great opportunity. Ive been trying for years!
Can anyone explain why 2 separate alphabetical lists shown up when I search for my user name in the logged on members? |
I think the first list is of the members actively chatting and the second list is of everyone that is logged on. I'm not positive though
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surgyon
Local
Joined: Mar/08/2010
Location: 23
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 1478
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Posted: Apr/09/2010 at 3:22pm |
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they should institue a "you get an extra chance for every $10 you spend" plan or not
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aguninc
Ski Bum
Joined: Jan/07/2010
Location: 23
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 71
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Posted: Apr/09/2010 at 3:22pm |
chances of winning seem pretty good
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NGremlin!
Ski Bum
Joined: Mar/15/2010
Location: 18
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 476
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Posted: Apr/09/2010 at 3:18pm |
Originally posted by joness
So you can log in in every day, but your chances of winning that day is the exact same as the person who just joined. |
Yes the chances are the same, but sometimes you get lucky! Didn't you win a board?
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Snowguy7
Instructor
Joined: Dec/31/2008
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 1783
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Posted: Apr/09/2010 at 2:48pm |
Originally posted by qcages
About a year, haven't won, but i never bitch about it or anything like so many other people do.  |
You joined 2 months ago... haha!
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joness
Ski Bum
Joined: Oct/07/2009
Location: 18
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 640
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Posted: Apr/09/2010 at 2:45pm |
Originally posted by gmogi
Not really true. Probability states that the more chances you enter, the higher the likelihood you will win. It is just like roulette, sooner or later 00 or any one number will hit. In the case of the giveaway, the odds are lower than roulette, but the same principle applies. If you are persistent enough, you should win sooner or later. |
Well, that isn't really true. Probability is the numerical assessment of likelihood on a scale from 0 (impossibility) to 1 (absolute certainty). Your chances of winning on each day isn't dependent on whether you have previously won or lost. In games of chance, such as this one, the entries are independent, meaning each day your chance of winning is 1/(however many people are entered). So you can log in in every day, but your chances of winning that day is the exact same as the person who just joined.
However, you have better odds if you play (log in) than if don't play (because then your odds are 0). So the more you log in, the more you can take your chances, which are the same as all the other people logged in that day.
And the whole concept of 'sooner or later' in gambling is a BAD idea. I was at a roulette table on my 21st birthday. They had rolled a red number the last 10 times. A guy walked up, thinking the next one HAD to be black, what are the odds! Well, the odds were STILL 50/50. He dropped $20 on black, and they rolled a red. He wanted to make his money back, so he dropped another $20 on black, it rolled red. Frustrated he dropped $40 on black... red again. He thought that the black HAD to come up, so he dropped $80, it rolled red. He was freaked out that his wife was going to be mad at him, so he put down $100 on black to get some of his money back... red... again. This guy lost $260 in less than 5 minutes by assuming the odds were better than 50/50. He finally walked away.
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Big Air. Kids today, that's all they want, big air. I say stick to the mountain. That's where the fun is. You want big air kid? Pull my finger.
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qcages
Ski Bum
Joined: Feb/09/2010
Location: 16
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 282
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Posted: Apr/09/2010 at 2:20pm |
About a year, haven't won, but i never bitch about it or anything like so many other people do.
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marble49
Local
Joined: Jan/03/2008
Location: 20
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 307
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Posted: Apr/09/2010 at 2:17pm |
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i think i'm still tied with everyone else that still hasn't won yet!!
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skboarder06
Ski Bum
Joined: Dec/07/2009
Location: 49
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 176
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Posted: Apr/09/2010 at 2:14pm |
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I have the worst luck and figure i'm not going to win, so what's the point trying to login every day at the same time. lol
But if i happen to be on while the giveaway is going on and i win, well so be it!!!
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mikeofarabia
Ski Bum
Xbox Live: Eat Ur Corpse
Joined: Mar/04/2009
Location: 19
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 40
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Posted: Apr/09/2010 at 1:59pm |
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I never see my name on the roll! color me bummed
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fishkur
Local
Joined: Aug/03/2009
Location: 49
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 1147
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Posted: Apr/08/2010 at 3:29pm |
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It's nothing like roulette...that game is skill-based, which is why I always win.
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BVoZ
Local
Joined: Nov/14/2009
Location: 22
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 1245
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Posted: Apr/08/2010 at 11:48am |
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they shouldn't include the guests
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gmogi
Ski Bum
The champion makes his own luck
Joined: Dec/18/2009
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 367
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Posted: Apr/08/2010 at 11:46am |
Originally posted by eriklim
You should all know It's based on luck. Doesn't depend on how many times you enter.  Shouldn't sob over things that are luck.
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Not really true. Probability states that the more chances you enter, the higher the likelihood you will win. It is just like roulette, sooner or later 00 or any one number will hit. In the case of the giveaway, the odds are lower than roulette, but the same principle applies. If you are persistent enough, you should win sooner or later.
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eriklim
Local
take on the ice
Joined: Mar/31/2010
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 678
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Posted: Apr/08/2010 at 8:11am |
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You should all know It's based on luck. Doesn't depend on how many times you enter. Shouldn't sob over things that are luck.
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ddomski
Instructor
Joined: Sep/09/2008
Location: 18
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 2055
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Posted: Apr/08/2010 at 7:10am |
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i desperately want to win!
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Gnu B Pro 152 BTX w/ Union Milan bindings
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keljai
Instructor
Joined: Mar/01/2010
Location: 51
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 2753
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Posted: Apr/08/2010 at 7:08am |
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l gotta say, l bet alot of ppl didn't win also
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whitetiger604
Ski Bum
Joined: Feb/05/2009
Location: 2
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 28
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Posted: Apr/07/2010 at 10:42am |
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Around 170 tries. I'm going to end this losing streak today.
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Backside10
Instructor
Joined: Feb/16/2009
Location: 19
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 542
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Posted: Mar/29/2010 at 1:27pm |
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I got 360+ points. probably sat in on the giveaway at least 300 times over the last couple years. NADA.
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sixpoint
Local
Joined: Dec/12/2008
Location: 23
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 348
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Posted: Mar/29/2010 at 8:38am |
The Give Away is a great opportunity. Ive been trying for years!
Can anyone explain why 2 separate alphabetical lists shown up when I search for my user name in the logged on members?
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Buckshot
Ski Bum
Joined: Feb/20/2009
Location: 22
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 235
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Posted: Mar/29/2010 at 8:25am |
Originally posted by LeahE
I think its absolutely great that they provide a free giveaway - it entices people to participate in SS.
If extra chances were given to longstanding members or if new members were excluded, I think that would be detrimental to participation.
Instead I think bonus draws or bonus weeks of giveaways for long-term members would reward those members who actively participate and have been doing so for years. |
Maybe they could give a way another Vapor (or similar hot board). Then when 2500 people log on split up the giveaway to tiers instead of everyone. EG: 1st Board (Vapor or similar): Everyone can win. 2nd Board (Sierra): Only Ski bum 3nd Board (Sierra): Only Locals 4nd Board (Sierra): Only Instructors 5nd Board (Sierra): Only Board Members 6nd Board (Sierra): Only Expert Members The higher members would have a better chance of winning based on their lower member totals (assumption made here). Or reverse the entire thing...just another way, giving higher member more chances to win. 1st Board (Sierra): Only Expert Members
2nd Board (Sierra): Expert Members & Board Members
3nd Board (Sierra): Expert Members & Board Members & Instructors
4nd Board (Sierra): Expert Members & Board Members & Instructors & Locals
5nd Board (Sierra): Expert Members & Board Members & Instructors & Locals & Ski bum
6nd Board (Vapor or similar): Everyone can win. Of course the down fall to putting the Vapor at the end is that any of the above winners will not be eligible for it. So I propose we rectify that situation by giving away 3 Vapors & 3 Methods.(wet dream here)
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Burton Custom X C02 EST '09 | Burton Hero ICS Infidel (Regs) '10
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Buckshot
Ski Bum
Joined: Feb/20/2009
Location: 22
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 235
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Posted: Mar/29/2010 at 8:08am |
Originally posted by joness
Watching Jared definitely feels like a win to me! Does that mean I have the shortest loosing streak, if I win every day?
Even if there wasn't a give away I would tune in every day... how do you not love him?!
(click it)  |
Fantastic
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Burton Custom X C02 EST '09 | Burton Hero ICS Infidel (Regs) '10
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Charb
Local
Joined: Oct/09/2009
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 1161
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Posted: Mar/29/2010 at 12:11am |
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Don't we all! :) hehe. Let's wait and see.
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KLiang07
Ski Bum
Joined: Mar/08/2010
Location: 18
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 398
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Posted: Mar/29/2010 at 12:04am |
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a week or two, but i plan to end it soon muhahaha
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joness
Ski Bum
Joined: Oct/07/2009
Location: 18
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 640
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Posted: Mar/28/2010 at 11:41pm |
Watching Jared definitely feels like a win to me! Does that mean I have the shortest loosing streak, if I win every day?
Even if there wasn't a give away I would tune in every day... how do you not love him?!
(click it)
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Marumm
Instructor
caw
Joined: Jan/14/2009
Location: 16
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 1597
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Posted: Mar/28/2010 at 11:27pm |
Originally posted by myke
I've been here since I think late 06 or early 07 - never won...
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Just another 4000 or so points and you'll earn your own. Damn that's a lot of posts.
Originally posted by PICKLES
Throwing in my 2 cents.... the giveaways should be for
those who participate in the shenanigans of SS. That should mean at
least setting up your profile and changing your user name. Put up an
avatar, answer a question... something. Shop_fill-in-# shouldn't be
eligible. Changing the user name is easy. |
That doesn't sound like a bad idea- but maybe instead of excluding people, incentivize the process. Have it set up like a raffle, and give tickets (chances of winning) for each step completed. Something like: Name changed from shop_xxx - 1 ticket profile filled out - 1 ticket At least one forum post within the last week - 1 ticket At least one purchase (any time) - 1 ticket One review that has been rated helpful by at least 3 people - 1 ticket etc... It could encourage people to be more active in the community, and at the same time, reward those the contribute more. On the other hand, a spinner is simple and fair, and has a lot less database and coding shenanigans behind it.
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tc913
Local
Joined: Jan/12/2009
Location: 19
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 1824
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Posted: Mar/28/2010 at 11:26pm |
Originally posted by akio525
this worries me.... am I wasting my time logging in every day? |
is your question for real? you just joined 3 days ago......
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myke
Instructor
Joined: Jan/06/2007
Location: 18
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 6744
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Posted: Mar/28/2010 at 11:24pm |
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I've been here since I think late 06 or early 07 - never won...
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I'm here for the gangbang....
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gmogi
Ski Bum
The champion makes his own luck
Joined: Dec/18/2009
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 367
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Posted: Mar/28/2010 at 11:11pm |
Originally posted by LeahE
I think its absolutely great that they provide a free giveaway - it entices people to participate in SS.
If extra chances were given to longstanding members or if new members were excluded, I think that would be detrimental to participation.
Instead I think bonus draws or bonus weeks of giveaways for long-term members would reward those members who actively participate and have been doing so for years. |
I doubt that will happen, who knows, but more work for sierra for a free giveaway doesn't seem a lot of motivation to change it. Also they want a lot of people to go to their site, hoping a percentage of them are going to buy something from them. If they did that, then less people would do it. Also, for the long term members, you get benefits from member points, so I don't think they would change the way they do things here.
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LeahE
Ski Bum
Joined: Mar/03/2010
Location: 7
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 381
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Posted: Mar/28/2010 at 3:36am |
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I think its absolutely great that they provide a free giveaway - it entices people to participate in SS.
If extra chances were given to longstanding members or if new members were excluded, I think that would be detrimental to participation.
Instead I think bonus draws or bonus weeks of giveaways for long-term members would reward those members who actively participate and have been doing so for years.
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Charb
Local
Joined: Oct/09/2009
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 1161
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Posted: Mar/28/2010 at 2:56am |
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consider it as an investment of your time for a few minutes everyday. As you well know, some investments pay, others don't. In all cases, you've got absolutely NOTHING to lose!
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Fincky
Ski Bum
Joined: Apr/27/2009
Location: 7
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 140
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Posted: Mar/28/2010 at 2:55am |
Im always snowboarding at 3pm, and when in Aussie its like 7:30 am so im still sleeping 
Oh well snowboarding and sleeping beats a one in a thousand chance at a free board.
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