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Topic Closedlongest losing streak for the giveaway

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KLiang07 View Drop Down
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Direct Link To This Post Topic: longest losing streak for the giveaway
    Posted: Mar/28/2010 at 10:04pm
a week or two, but i plan to end it soon muhahaha
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: Mar/28/2010 at 10:11pm
Don't we all! :) hehe. Let's wait and see.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: Mar/29/2010 at 6:08am
Originally posted by joness

Watching Jared definitely feels like a win to me! Does that mean I have the shortest loosing streak, if I win every day?

Even if there wasn't a give away I would tune in every day... how do you not love him?!
(click it)

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: Mar/29/2010 at 6:25am
Originally posted by LeahE

I think its absolutely great that they provide a free giveaway - it entices people to participate in SS.

If extra chances were given to longstanding members or if new members were excluded, I think that would be detrimental to participation.

Instead I think bonus draws or bonus weeks of giveaways for long-term members would reward those members who actively participate and have been doing so for years.


Maybe they could give a way another Vapor (or similar hot board). Then when 2500 people log on split up the giveaway to tiers instead of everyone. EG:

1st Board (Vapor or similar): Everyone can win.
2nd Board (Sierra): Only Ski bum
3nd Board (Sierra): Only Locals
4nd Board (Sierra): Only Instructors
5nd Board (Sierra): Only Board Members
6nd Board (Sierra): Only Expert Members

The higher members would have a better chance of winning based on their lower member totals (assumption made here).

Or reverse the entire thing...just another way, giving higher member more chances to win.
1st Board (Sierra): Only Expert Members
2nd Board (Sierra): Expert Members & Board Members
3nd Board (Sierra): Expert Members & Board Members & Instructors
4nd Board (Sierra): Expert Members & Board Members & Instructors & Locals
5nd Board (Sierra): Expert Members & Board Members & Instructors & Locals & Ski bum
6nd Board (Vapor or similar): Everyone can win.

Of course the down fall to putting the Vapor at the end is that any of the above winners will not be eligible for it. So I propose we rectify that situation by giving away 3 Vapors & 3 Methods.(wet dream here)Wink
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: Mar/29/2010 at 6:38am

The Give Away is a great opportunity.   Ive been trying for years!

 

Can anyone explain why 2 separate alphabetical lists shown up when I search for my user name in the logged on members? 

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: Mar/29/2010 at 11:27am
I got 360+ points. probably sat in on the giveaway at least 300 times over the last couple years. NADA.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: Apr/07/2010 at 8:42am
Around 170 tries. I'm going to end this losing streak today.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: Apr/08/2010 at 5:08am
l gotta say, l bet alot of ppl didn't win also
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: Apr/08/2010 at 5:10am
i desperately want to win!
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: Apr/08/2010 at 6:11am
You should all know It's based on luck.  Doesn't depend on how many times you enter.   Shouldn't sob over things that are luck.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: Apr/08/2010 at 9:46am
Originally posted by eriklim


You should all know It's based on luck.  Doesn't depend on how many times you enter.   Shouldn't sob over things that are luck.


Not really true. Probability states that the more chances you enter, the higher the likelihood you will win. It is just like roulette, sooner or later 00 or any one number will hit. In the case of the giveaway, the odds are lower than roulette, but the same principle applies. If you are persistent enough, you should win sooner or later.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: Apr/08/2010 at 9:48am
they shouldn't include the guests
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: Apr/08/2010 at 1:29pm
It's nothing like roulette...that game is skill-based, which is why I always win.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: Apr/09/2010 at 11:59am
I never see my name on the roll!  color me bummed
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: Apr/09/2010 at 12:14pm
I have the worst luck and figure i'm not going to win, so what's the point trying to login every day at the same time. lol
But if i happen to be on while the giveaway is going on and i win, well so be it!!!
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: Apr/09/2010 at 12:17pm
i think i'm still tied with everyone else that still hasn't won yet!!
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: Apr/09/2010 at 12:20pm
About a year, haven't won, but i never bitch about it or anything like so many other people do.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: Apr/09/2010 at 12:45pm
Originally posted by gmogi

Not really true. Probability states that the more chances you enter, the higher the likelihood you will win. It is just like roulette, sooner or later 00 or any one number will hit. In the case of the giveaway, the odds are lower than roulette, but the same principle applies. If you are persistent enough, you should win sooner or later.


Well, that isn't really true. Probability is the numerical assessment of likelihood on a scale from 0 (impossibility) to 1 (absolute certainty). Your chances of winning on each day isn't dependent on whether you have previously won or lost. In games of chance, such as this one, the entries are independent, meaning each day your chance of winning is 1/(however many people are entered).   So you can log in in every day, but your chances of winning that day is the exact same as the person who just joined.
However, you have better odds if you play (log in) than if don't play (because then your odds are 0). So the more you log in, the more you can take your chances, which are the same as all the other people logged in that day.

And the whole concept of 'sooner or later' in gambling is a BAD idea. I was at a roulette table on my 21st birthday. They had rolled a red number the last 10 times. A guy walked up, thinking the next one HAD to be black, what are the odds! Well, the odds were STILL 50/50. He dropped $20 on black, and they rolled a red. He wanted to make his money back, so he dropped another $20 on black, it rolled red. Frustrated he dropped $40 on black... red again. He thought that the black HAD to come up, so he dropped $80, it rolled red.   He was freaked out that his wife was going to be mad at him, so he put down $100 on black to get some of his money back... red... again. This guy lost $260 in less than 5 minutes by assuming the odds were better than 50/50. He finally walked away.
Big Air. Kids today, that's all they want, big air. I say stick to the mountain. That's where the fun is. You want big air kid? Pull my finger.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: Apr/09/2010 at 12:48pm
Originally posted by qcages

About a year, haven't won, but i never bitch about it or anything like so many other people do.


You joined 2 months ago... haha!
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: Apr/09/2010 at 1:18pm
Originally posted by joness

So you can log in in every day, but your chances of winning that day is the exact same as the person who just joined.

Yes the chances are the same, but sometimes you get lucky! Didn't you win a board?
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: Apr/09/2010 at 1:22pm

chances of winning seem pretty good

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: Apr/09/2010 at 1:22pm
they should institue a "you get an extra chance for every $10 you spend" plan or not
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: Apr/09/2010 at 1:23pm
Originally posted by sixpoint

The Give Away is a great opportunity.   Ive been trying for years!

 

Can anyone explain why 2 separate alphabetical lists shown up when I search for my user name in the logged on members? 



I think the first list is of the members actively chatting and the second list is of everyone that is logged on. I'm not positive though
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: Apr/09/2010 at 1:24pm
I've got about 200 logged in days so far with no win.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: Apr/09/2010 at 1:26pm
i forget how long it's been.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: Apr/09/2010 at 1:29pm
they average about 800-1000 people per day logged in for the giveaway...so..if you log in 1000 weekdays...your chances are pretty good at winning once...there are 260 weekdays per year..it'll take less than 4 years to get a free board...unless your luck really sucks..and other people are winning multiple times while you get nothing...
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: Apr/10/2010 at 12:49am
Originally posted by joness

Well, that isn't really true. Probability is the numerical assessment of likelihood on a scale from 0 (impossibility) to 1 (absolute certainty). Your chances of winning on each day isn't dependent on whether you have previously won or lost. In games of chance, such as this one, the entries are independent, meaning each day your chance of winning is 1/(however many people are entered).   So you can log in in every day, but your chances of winning that day is the exact same as the person who just joined.
However, you have better odds if you play (log in) than if don't play (because then your odds are 0). So the more you log in, the more you can take your chances, which are the same as all the other people logged in that day.

And the whole concept of 'sooner or later' in gambling is a BAD idea. I was at a roulette table on my 21st birthday. They had rolled a red number the last 10 times. A guy walked up, thinking the next one HAD to be black, what are the odds! Well, the odds were STILL 50/50. He dropped $20 on black, and they rolled a red. He wanted to make his money back, so he dropped another $20 on black, it rolled red. Frustrated he dropped $40 on black... red again. He thought that the black HAD to come up, so he dropped $80, it rolled red.   He was freaked out that his wife was going to be mad at him, so he put down $100 on black to get some of his money back... red... again. This guy lost $260 in less than 5 minutes by assuming the odds were better than 50/50. He finally walked away.


So what you are talking about is called gambler's fallacy, which is correct. What I was trying to convey was the law of large numbers. In your case, it is possible for that kind of streak to happen, since you are looking at a short period of a countless times the roulette has been spun. Even though it is an independent event, if there is enough spins, your name should come up because of law of large numbers.

With the giveaway, you aren't dealing with a fair machine, so the actual probability is different. Let just assume it is fair and say the chances of one person is something around 1/1000 (probably lower since it doesn't really go over 1000). If it spun 100,000 times, the law of large number states that the probability of you getting pick should be close to 1/1000. When will one get that first win, is hard to say, but if you entered 10,000 spins, it would be a low probability that you haven't one at least once. That was the point I was trying to make.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: Apr/10/2010 at 6:14pm
EVERYDAY IS ANOTHER LOSING DAY
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: Apr/10/2010 at 6:46pm
Another week without a win, but theres always next week
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: Apr/10/2010 at 7:02pm
3days in a row haha.

what do you need to do to be in the draw? just log in?

thanks
ps im new to sierra

:D
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: Apr/11/2010 at 8:21am
Just log in and make sure your under the list of active members. It might take a while because you need to be "active." on the site.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: Apr/11/2010 at 8:03pm
Joined a month ago and still haven't won.  
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: Apr/11/2010 at 8:05pm
+1 day
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: May/06/2010 at 1:58pm
wow a month ago, man try years
my mom says im hardcore
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: May/08/2010 at 6:50am
joined  march 8 and won on april 28. damn that took a long time!!Big smile

It may have been less because i didn't really log in everyday during the beginning. I was trying to change my guest account name to my current name  for at least a week(not sure it was me or the system was messed up).
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: May/08/2010 at 6:55am
what do you mean active members?
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: May/08/2010 at 3:42pm
After seeing all the heartbreak in this post, I figured it'd be better to just buy my Stunt for $99
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: May/08/2010 at 3:55pm
Yea the stunt was a great price, I am actually waiting and hoping to see if the rc will go to the staffpick and go as cheap as the stunt.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: May/08/2010 at 4:01pm
I wonder who has been a member for the shortest time and has won the giveaway.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: May/10/2010 at 3:54pm
Originally posted by dking on 03/Mar/2009

I've been a member since before the giveaways started and I log on 99% of the time... no luck yet Unhappy
 
But I like the site and love the store even more. Keep it up SS!!


I just realized that another year has passed since I first posted in this thread. I'm logged in most of the time and still no win yet.  And I rarely see my name during the spin. I guess I'm just not that lucky. At least Jared is entertaining LOL

Originally posted by Trevinpendry

I wonder who has been a member for the shortest time and has won the giveaway.


And crazily enough, there have been members that have had their name come up too quickly and were disqualified from winning the second time. Just amazing... Confused
No Sig... I'm just not that witty or creative
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: May/10/2010 at 3:58pm
I haven't been able to log in @ 3pm for a few months now bc of school and work..so it looks like I won't have chance to win for a while
Get Some
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: May/10/2010 at 4:09pm
I havent won since Feb 2008!! Thats more than 2 years!
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