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Not so Official 12/13 Weather Discussion

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shwazy View Drop Down
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  Quote shwazy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Not so Official 12/13 Weather Discussion
    Posted: Sep/27/2012 at 6:16pm
This is a general discussion about weather for this winter season.  The site posted below is the best I found in regards to Tahoe weather.  



This is the best I have found for Mammoth:  

http://mammothweather.com/ ...he really is good as far as this stuff goes :)




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  Quote snowboardinrox357 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Sep/27/2012 at 6:26pm
Originally posted by shwazy


Here is a nice post about the upcoming season.  
There is not enough analogs to seem to make a good forecast for this year.  Fun read though.



So for this thread, what are we supposed to be talking about? Tahoe weather?

It's pretty sunny and warm in Lake Tahoe right now. I hope it starts snowing soon.
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  Quote shwazy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Sep/27/2012 at 7:02pm
Originally posted by snowboardinrox357

Originally posted by shwazy


Here is a nice post about the upcoming season.  
There is not enough analogs to seem to make a good forecast for this year.  Fun read though.



So for this thread, what are we supposed to be talking about? Tahoe weather?

It's pretty sunny and warm in Lake Tahoe right now. I hope it starts snowing soon.

No this is a general discussion about weather for winter season.  I ride in Tahoe so I am particularly interested in Tahoe weather.
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  Quote Skio25 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Sep/28/2012 at 5:52am
Well this year I'm on the east coast so I love what farmers almanac has to say. "The eastern half of the country will see plenty of cold and snow"
All this says for me is "lots" of powder and winddrifts:
We are “red flagging” February 12–15 and March 20–23 for major coastal storms along the Atlantic seaboard; storms bringing strong winds and heavy precipitation.
<3

Farmers Almanac winter prediction:

Last winter was the fourth warmest for the contiguous 48 since record keeping began in 1895, with 24 states experiencing below-normal precipitation. In fact, California experienced its second driest winter ever. In only 10 states—chiefly across the nation’s midsection— was winter precipitation above normal.

The situation became critical this past spring and summer with broiling hot temperatures across much of the country and the most severe drought conditions the nation has seen in more than 50 years.

For the coming season, we’re predicting that winter will return to some – but not all – areas. We think it will be a “winter of contraries, as if Old Man Winter were cutting the country in half. The eastern half of the country will see plenty of cold and snow. The western half will experience relatively warm and dry condition. In other words, as in the political arena, the climate this winter will render us a nation divided.

We predict that real winter weather will return to areas from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Most eastern states – as far south as the Gulf Coast – will see snowier than normal conditions and cooler temperatures.

We are “red flagging” February 12–15 and March 20–23 for major coastal storms along the Atlantic seaboard; storms bringing strong winds and heavy precipitation.

But on the other side of the country, winter will continue its hiatus for another year. The forecast for west of the Continental Divide – the Pacific Northwest, desert Southwest, Pacific Coast – calls for mild temperatures and below-normal precipitation.

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  Quote diviesti Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Sep/28/2012 at 6:04am
This is most accurate weather map I've come across


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  Quote Mandiiella Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Sep/28/2012 at 6:07am
it better snow this year or im moving... such bs!Angry
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  Quote 360faceplant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Sep/28/2012 at 6:41am
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  Quote RastaRider Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Sep/28/2012 at 8:35am
Originally posted by diviesti

This is most accurate weather map I've come across



Hahaha YES!! This pretty much sums it up. Weathermen have trouble forecasting the 5 day, not sure why anyone would think a forecast for an entire season that is months away is even remotely accurate.

Last year was 'forecasted' to be above average snow and below average temps for the colorado mtns... instead we got record low snow falls and very mild temps. 
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  Quote Cooperla Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Sep/28/2012 at 8:55am
I get so fired up reading these forecasts and projections.  Start thinking about unpacking my gear and getting some wax on my board.  And then...
 
It's going to hit 100f in Sac this weekend.  It's not quite winter yet.
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  Quote spenser Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Sep/28/2012 at 11:38am
in one of the weather predictions for the year, it told us the northwest was going to have a warmer and less precipitous year because they say it's going to be an el nino year, and then they went on to compare it to 06/07 which was our record year, during which we were #1 in the world until the end of the season when baker beat us out.

we have had every kind of year during every kind of weather pattern (nino, nina, etc) so it's pretty clear that that doesn't really matter, and we've also had every kind of year within each kind of prediction, so clearly those guesses also tell you nothing.

so far we have had dustings below 4k feet (we are at sea level) and it is sticking above that.  anchorage is expecting snow in town this weekend too.  i think we are looking good so far.  and based on the weather we had all summer and that prediction comparing this year to 06/07, we are following the pattern of our record year.  i'm taking that with a big grain of salt, but it's still exciting.
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  Quote shwazy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Sep/28/2012 at 5:20pm
Originally posted by spenser

in one of the weather predictions for the year, it told us the northwest was going to have a warmer and less precipitous year because they say it's going to be an el nino year, and then they went on to compare it to 06/07 which was our record year, during which we were #1 in the world until the end of the season when baker beat us out.

we have had every kind of year during every kind of weather pattern (nino, nina, etc) so it's pretty clear that that doesn't really matter, and we've also had every kind of year within each kind of prediction, so clearly those guesses also tell you nothing.

so far we have had dustings below 4k feet (we are at sea level) and it is sticking above that.  anchorage is expecting snow in town this weekend too.  i think we are looking good so far.  and based on the weather we had all summer and that prediction comparing this year to 06/07, we are following the pattern of our record year.  i'm taking that with a big grain of salt, but it's still exciting.

Yeah the method of using analogs seems to be paper thin because they do not have enough seasons that align with the current season's characteristics...even if the method works there doesn't seem to be enough data to support using the technique.  Maybe a coupe hundred years from now it will be on more solid ground.

Yeah half the fun is just hearing about imminent snow fall 
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  Quote Skio25 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Sep/29/2012 at 7:49am
Yeah it's basically selective reading. I ignore all of the crappy predictions until I find one that I like hahah. Though it does seem like it will be better than last year here. It's been steadily getting colder sooner than normal, with record lows and a lot of heavy rain storms..So I'll  have to cross my fingers for an appropriate dewpoint in the months to come.
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  Quote snowboardinrox357 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Sep/29/2012 at 12:59pm
So the weather in Tahoe will reach 77-82 degrees. It's going to be pretty hot for the start of next week. No snow in the forecast as of right now.
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  Quote shwazy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct/21/2012 at 5:54am
Major snow event on its way for Tahoe.  Should leave between 2 and 3 feet.  Perhaps the big fall prediction by this dude: tahoeweatherdiscussion.com will actually be accurate.
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  Quote | | | bryman | | | Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct/21/2012 at 6:15am
Sounds like we better make an effort to get up there and check it out this week -- likely to be dry for a couple weeks after this one
 
-b
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  Quote highway12south Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct/21/2012 at 7:36am
Get after it guys. Bet Boreal opensif 2-3 ft falls there
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  Quote Angry Midget Yo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct/21/2012 at 10:24am
Thank goodness, fall weather is finally kicking in!  I do hope we get some storms soon.
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  Quote shing02 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct/21/2012 at 2:12pm
http://tahoeweatherdiscussion.com/preparing
i think we have something interesting coming along...
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  Quote snowboardinrox357 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct/21/2012 at 3:23pm
According to the weather forecast, it's supposed to snow in Tahoe on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and possibly Thursday!
Hopefully there will be enough snow so that the resorts open early this year. :)
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  Quote JDiggidy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct/22/2012 at 6:29am
This morning's forcast was showing a signifigant chance of snow in the mountains.  I sure hope so!  After my mountain got dumped on (over a foot!) a few weeks ago, it got back up to 60 degrees and melted off much of the bottom's snow.  You can still see snow in the shady areas on the webcam, but it's not near as much.  Here's hoping.
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  Quote lightning80 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct/22/2012 at 7:00am
it's been raining non-stop in sacramento since late last night...this usually means snow in at tahoe. i'd say there's been at least a foot of snow up there by now.
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  Quote | | | bryman | | | Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct/22/2012 at 7:16am
It's definitely getting started.  This is from my friend's house in Incline earlier this a.m.
 
123
 
-b
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  Quote Cooperla Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct/22/2012 at 7:28am
^Nice!

The resort webcams all show some snow, looks around a foot.  It's all gonna melt when it warms up later this week, but it's still exciting to see the first snow.  Let's hope we get a good early Tahoe season this year.
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  Quote Piranha Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct/22/2012 at 7:40am
yeah, sucks that it's gonna dump over a foot and then all melt...I don't really wanna be riding over rocks in mid jan again
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  Quote lightning80 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct/22/2012 at 7:52am
I hope it doesn't melt..it's supposed to keep snowing on and off until thursday or friday...then a chance of another storm mid next week.
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  Quote Cooperla Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct/22/2012 at 7:59am
But it's also going to hit almost 60 at the weekend.  I usually wait until they start blowing snow to get really amped up.  That's a sign that they think it's going to be cold enough to stick.
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  Quote julius77 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct/22/2012 at 8:00am
It's raining hard in Santa Cruz today. hope these cold wet winter storms continue all season.
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  Quote Muse25 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct/25/2012 at 8:54pm
Let's just hope it's better than last season!
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  Quote snowboardinrox357 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct/26/2012 at 8:21pm
Originally posted by Muse25

Let's just hope it's better than last season!


Yeah, same here. This season is off to a good start. The recent snowstorm in Lake Tahoe brought over 30 inches of snow!
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  Quote highway12south Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct/27/2012 at 12:55am
 A little East Coast love and a sierra cement plastering OTW  at the home mtn!


http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=WVZ046&warncounty=WVC075&firewxzone=WVZ046&local_place1=&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch
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  Quote NickinChicago Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct/27/2012 at 10:44am
Originally posted by | | | bryman | | |

It's definitely getting started.  This is from my friend's house in Incline earlier this a.m.
 
123
 
-b

I would love to have your friends house. Awesome view and location there.
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  Quote Angry Midget Yo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct/27/2012 at 10:48am
And it's back to 90s degree weather again in SoCal.  Cry
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  Quote shwazy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct/27/2012 at 11:24am
from tahoeweatherdiscussion.com

The long-range outlook is for the storms to continue just our North and at times dip into Northern CA.  No more really cold storms coming down the coast in the near future as we will have a constant zonal flow of storms across the North Pacific and into the NW US.  We still have a negative PNA and the MJO is forecasted into phase 2 and 3.  Going into November those phases favor cooler conditions (not cold like phase 1) and a continued stormy pattern for CA.

lets hope so
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  Quote snowboardinrox357 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct/27/2012 at 1:29pm
Originally posted by shwazy

from tahoeweatherdiscussion.com
<span style="color: rgb176, 176, 176; font-family: Arial, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19px; : rgb0, 0, 0; ">The long-range outlook is for the storms to continue just our North and at times dip into Northern CA.  No more really cold storms coming down the coast in the near future as we will have a constant zonal flow of storms across the North Pacific and into the NW US.  We still have a negative PNA and the MJO is forecasted into phase 2 and 3.  Going into November those phases favor cooler conditions (not cold like phase 1) and a continued stormy pattern for CA.</span>
<span style="color: rgb176, 176, 176; font-family: Arial, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19px; : rgb0, 0, 0; "></span>
<span style="color: rgb176, 176, 176; font-family: Arial, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19px; : rgb0, 0, 0; ">lets hope so</span>


There's a chance of rain/snow in Lake Tahoe on Halloween and the day afterwards. Hopefully we'll get a few more inches of snow! :]
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  Quote mommehK Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct/28/2012 at 7:11pm
Highway - I'd give ANYTHING to be closer to WV this week!


...but....it's already snowing at Beech, Cataloochee has guns/blowers on, and I'm boarding Wednesday as long as Cat opens!!! \m/

http://www.resortcams.com/webcameras-cataloochee.php


http://www.beechalpen.com/live_cam/meadow.html


This makes me drool....
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  Quote Piranha Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct/28/2012 at 8:12pm
desperado...
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  Quote highway12south Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct/28/2012 at 11:19pm
 Momk Id love to see snowshoe pull an early opening act like they did 4 years ago when it snowed 3+ ft in mid November and they opened early. I think its too early this time though.Hope they prove me wrong .Its not close any populated areas out there at all  and hard to make it worth their while . Hiking for turns WEd? Only time will tell
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  Quote highway12south Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct/28/2012 at 11:24pm
BTW. Check it
  • Today Snow with areas of blowing snow. High near 29. Windy, with a northwest wind 20 to 25 mph increasing to 26 to 31 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
  • Tonight Snow with areas of blowing snow. Low around 24. Windy, with a northwest wind around 33 mph, with gusts as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible.
  • Tuesday Snow. High near 28. Windy, with a west wind 32 to 36 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.
  • Tuesday Night Snow. Low around 28. Windy, with a west wind 25 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
  • Wednesday Snow showers. High near 29. Breezy, with a west wind 21 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
  • Wednesday Night Snow showers likely, mainly before 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
  • Thursday A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
  • Thursday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
  • Friday A chance of snow showers. Partly


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  Quote shwazy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct/29/2012 at 5:06pm
Tahoe region is supposed to be basically dry for the next ten days...let's hope for some snow for the Thanksgiving holiday!
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  Quote batmanwest Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct/29/2012 at 5:42pm
First flakes of the year are flying in ole' Columbus Ohio right now. Not that it will amount to more than an inch or so, and not that I can do anything with it here, but always a welcome sight. Areas of N.WV could see up to 4ft. by thursday. Just crazy, wish it could be possible for me to load a junk board up and drive east a few hours to make a few turns. 
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  Quote mommehK Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct/29/2012 at 5:48pm
Reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeally hoping Sugar gets greedy and opens tomorrow instead of Wednesday. My partner-in-crime has tomorrow off (and can't change it), so we're gearing up tonight just in case. Boards taken in for tuning / waxing / etc today...ready to go go go!!!
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  Quote highway12south Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct/29/2012 at 11:33pm
Historic storm  for sure .. Wish I had a split board .
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  Quote shwazy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Nov/14/2012 at 11:04am
Music to my ear!

http://tahoeweatherdiscussion.com/
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  Quote lime451 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Nov/14/2012 at 11:16am
Looks like some more snow in the next few days for the Tahoe region, though it's not as much as they had initially projected a few days ago.
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  Quote Muse25 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Nov/14/2012 at 4:51pm
Eh. Doesn't look promising for Tahoe this opening weekend. Man made snow was ok but it got real old in the end.
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  Quote snowboardinrox357 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Nov/14/2012 at 5:17pm
According to the weather forecast, there's going to a lot of snow on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday in Tahoe this weekend. :]
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  Quote Muse25 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Nov/15/2012 at 10:53am
Does anyone know what the projected season is this year? Farmer's Almanac anyone?
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  Quote scuddera Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Nov/15/2012 at 10:59am
^^^ according to the farmers almanac for WI its supposed to be an extremely mild winter. Idk if i believe it because as of right now its colder than it was last yr and it has already snowed. I am not sure what the rest of the country looks like though
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  Quote highway12south Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Nov/15/2012 at 11:55am
Leaves are still changing down by the coast  inVa
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  Quote snowboardinrox357 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Nov/16/2012 at 5:20pm
Originally posted by highway12south

Leaves are still changing down by the coast  inVa



Aren't the leaves changing colors practically everywhere in the US?

It's going to be snowing in Lake Tahoe until Wednesday of next week :)
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